Progress or Greenwashing? Tracking Saudi Arabia's Fossil Fuel Transition
Twelve months ago, at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, world leaders finally agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels.” It was not a deal to “eliminate” in the way enormous numbers of campaigners wanted. But the last-minute agreement was a far greater commitment that many feared would be achieved.
The phrase “transition away” confirmed more precisely a direction of travel, but left crucial details—such as speed, pace, and urgency—frustratingly vague to secure an agreement.
So, a year on, is there measurable change? Or is that COP28 commitment just more convenient green washing, hogwash and a smoke screen behind which those who produce and profit from the black stuff can hide? This question looms large as greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel production reach record highs.
Progress! What progress?
There are many good reasons to be sceptical and cautious. Science-backed green campaigners remain determined to hold accountable those who might obscure the truth.
Yet, a year after COP28, it’s worth trying to audit actual progress.
I’m in Riyadh for the eighth Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference—my sixth attendance. This gives me a baseline to evaluate changes over recent years.
For several years the “green” rhetoric often seemed like lip service. In 2021, however, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched Vision 2030, a bold blueprint for Saudi environmental leadership. While welcoming the bold ideas and commitments for global Saudi leadership on Green, many feared this “initiative” was merely more smart window dressing that would be backed by little action. Saudi Arabia's approach at the COP27 meeting in Egypt appeared to reinforce those concerns.
But assessments in 2022 and 2023 began to indicate that these commitments might be both enduring and serious. So how do things stand at the end of 2024?
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Speaks
On the stage facing a vast illuminated hall with 7,000 top bankers, investors, think tankers and politicians is Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud. His diminutive figure stands alone behind a winged, steel lectern. He is overwhelmed by a massive LED screen behind him.
I am on top alert for being misled or fed official lines that give an impression of progress when in reality there is far less. For half an hour HRH speaks quietly from notes, clutching a slide clicker in his right hand.
I am pleasantly surprised and impressed, with a private concern that I might be being naive. But when I later asked the veteran energy consultant Dan Yergin, now Vice Chair of S&P Global, he agreed with me. He expressed almost zero caution.
The first slide’s message was clear: “We are transitioning with a purpose in the energy sector—from exporting oil to exporting all forms of energy, including low-carbon products.” The Kingdom’s plans include “deploying renewables rapidly and at scale,” with firm targets set for both 2024 and 2030.
As the minister continues the headline reads, “Kingdom in Transition,” with a focus on “diversifying away from oil.”
“We are transitioning with a purpose in the energy sector,” states the first slide, “from exporting oil to exporting all forms of energy, including low-carbon products.” It continues, “we are deploying renewables rapidly and at scale,” with specific targets for 2024 and 2030.
The quoted targets are ambitious.
The minister adds, “KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] has made major strides in clean hydrogen and has greater ambitions looking forward” to “export green energy in the form of renewable power and clean hydrogen.”
However, KSA will “maintain our pre-eminence in the oil sector” while also “further reducing our emissions through investments in carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration infrastructure.”
It becomes clear that the weight of reality slows the progress needed for significant shifts in mindset and commitment.
The minister acknowledges that KSA still lacks sufficient skills and attitudes required for this transition. As a result, the Kingdom has adopted a “holistic approach to support energy transition with the right workforce and talent to enable operational readiness.” By 2030, KSA aims to graduate 17,000 professionals, equipped with new perspectives and readiness to meet the demands of the transition.
One reason for addressing this capacity gap, he explains, is that “KSA is serious and wants to help other countries” make the necessary changes to achieve that transition.
Could any other country do it better? “No one has said, ‘we have a better example,’” the energy minister noted. “We look forward to partnering with those who share our aspirations... We will succeed in our transition and welcome collaboration opportunities.”
To those sceptical of Saudi intentions, he concluded with: “trust us and test us!”
Progress but Vigilance
My conclusion: what I heard here in Riyadh was positive progress and a healthy Saudi confirmation for their way forward. We should be heartened, but still on guard as the next realities of COP29 in Baku approach.