Another "unthinkable" result in Britain?
What seemed like an smart move by Theresa May in April, based on a high polling figures, has turned out to be spectacularly misjudged. It’s not just Theresa May; the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon seems to have paid a hight price in lost seats by getting the mood in Scotland wrong by pushing too hard and too soon for a second Scottish independence referendum.
In the UK, pollsters have been wrong yet again - and have egg on their faces - with very few exceptions.
It’s not just in Britain that politics is changing. On June 11, Emmanuel Macron is hoping to win a Parliamentary majority for a party invented less than 12 months ago.
For three years we have been studying the reasons why leaders - not just in politics but also the private sector - are misjudging the public mood. As one prominent CEO warned her peers: “we are in danger of creating angry citizens and angry citizens.”
The conclusions of our study, Thinking the Unthinkable, make disturbing reading. For more about the report watch this video by Co-author: Nik Gowing.
We conclude there is a deep crisis in leadership. A year ago, we anticipated both Brexit and also that Trump would be the Republican Candidate. Both “surprises” were contrary to the conventional wisdom which failed to spot the change in dynamics as publics turn against politicians, their advisers and corporate leaders.
Time and again, leaders don’t see what is coming down the track. On June 9th, Labour peer Lord Mandelson confessed: “I didn’t see this earthquake coming,” and former Tory Minister Eric Pickles candidly admitted that: “the thing that gives me the heebie-jeebies is I didn’t pick this up!”
At an election post-mortem on June 9th, we asked Ayesha Hazamka, a former adviser to ex-Labour leader Ed Miliband, if she agrees that British politicians and advisers cannot think the unthinkable or unpalatable? She could not be clearer: “the business of politics is still very closed… If you are an adviser to a minister and you come up with an idea, you talk to a journalist who will probably think it is quite good as you may hang out together. You may also ask a think-tank they are probably from your own tribe. What people don’t do is stress-test outside the bubble.” This chimes exactly with what we found in scores of off -the-record interviews captured in 3,500 pages of confidential transcripts, leaders have told us how they feel overwhelmed and fearful. One even talked of feeling like an imposter. We have identified nine key points in the interviews:
- Groupthink
- Wilful blindness
- Being overwhelmed by multiple intense pressures
- Cognitive overload and dissonance
- Institutional conformity
- Risk aversion
- Fear of making ‘career limiting moves’
- Reactionary mindsets
- Denial
We conclude that in many cases the conformity that gets leaders to the top disqualifies them from being able to operate effectively in a world of radical uncertainty. Theresa May is rightly criticised from being closed to outside advice and being over-reliant on key advisers. She is by no means alone in this. A senior communications director told us how difficult it is to get his CEO to talk more widely beyond vetted groups of employees.
One of the positives about both the British election and the French Presidential elections is that a relatively high percentage of Millennials went to vote. In interviews with both incumbent leaders and Millennials we heard widespread concern that young, high potential Millennials are being turned off by corporate culture and traditional politics.
We conclude that there needs to be a change in culture, behaviour and mindset and the systems that reinforce them.