Leaders: calculating what really matters?

Boris

Firstly, Boris Johnson. His theatrical rage and Friday evening resignation after being censured by the twelve month investigation of the British Parliament’s Privileges committee was typical Boris. Maximum tantrum. Maximum drama. Everyone is wrong except him and a few close confidants powered by loyalty to the defenestrated king.

Yes, the political drama was compelling. It reflected once again all that demeaned the UK during his three year stormy tenure as PM. Remarkably the BBC’s audience research put it at the top of viewer and listener interest.

The costs of lying

What would the former prime minister concoct next to bolster his stand against carefully considered and overwhelming evidence that he had lied and lied and lied again to parliament? And that he kept lying, always offering a different version of the truth. His version, and he had sworn on the bible that it would be correct, I kept asking myself: how on earth had many Brits believed he would be a credible prime minister with the elected responsibility for governing our nation in times of crises? He somehow convinced a majority among the 140,000 Tory party members who voted for their new leader. But credible? I routinely recall a conversation with one of those who worked closest to him. “He would have three meetings and come to three decisions. Each contradicted the other and therefore those attending believed they knew the direction of travel. But which was really the new policy?”

The benefits from being demeaned!

Finally – surely – the PM was dead (politically), long live the PM (the second since Boris’s colourful resignation in the summer last year). Boris was gone from parliament. But not from influence in public life. He had already earned £5 million plus on the speaker circuit in less than a year. He has been bought up by the Daily Mail to write a weekly Saturday column, reportedly for an annual fee of £1m.

Because of his massive outgoings and soon to be at least eight children, he needs every pound he can extract for the global celeb market. Despite so many negatives he is a celeb, a star and entertainer with a high value. His version of everything is crisp, sharp and always compelling. But how much of what he charges £250,000 for is a string of distortions?

Withering attacks on rule breaking

Boris’ predecessor Theresa May remains in parliament as a backbench MP. Unlike Boris she continues to abide by parliamentary rules. She carefully choses her moment to launch political grenades, especially at both her successors. Boris will do the same from outside with no accountability to anyone, except his bank balance, his ego and how he restores any political credibility.

Planetary Survival

Second is our planetary survival.

On Saturday I sat in a Big Tent (several of them) next to the wonderful minster (cathedral) in York. The Big Tent has become a superb experiment in the non-party political airing of critical issues facing us all. The aim is to identify then chart the need for “radical change”.

Here are a couple of examples: where have all the workers gone? Why is the UK so underskilled for what our economy needs?

The debates were always sharp, focussed and inspiring. They got to the heart of what is challenging us all, but many don’t want to talk about.

No alternative to Green

Most pointed was the debate about ‘Decarbonisation and the Green Revolution’. It sounds worthy. But the message was sinister and one that everyone everywhere needs to here and think hard about. Our survival on this planet depends on it.

The session reinforced the massive challenge facing us all: how will we as humans survive as the scale of the climate emergency picks up intensity and speed. As we met in York Minister, hundreds of people were dying in India from the acute heatwave.. Why? I kept asking myself: when will the people of the UK realise that their bodies cant survive beyond a certain temperature, wherever we live. The planet will be too hot!

How are we doing when faced with reducing emissions by 43% in seven years to get even close to achieving NetZero at a pace that might help stabilise the planet? Depressingly badly.

Off track

“We are seriously off track,” said Eddie Rich, CEO of International Hydropower. “Wind is the lynchpin but we are idling”, warned Mark Patterson, Executive Director of Warwick Energy a leading pioneer for developing wind power. Zak Polanski, deputy leader of the Green Party made clear that all that needs to be done can be done – with an iron will. “Nothing needs to be invented”.

“This is the most pressing issue the world faces,” said local York MP Julian Sturdy, a conservative who acknowledged that sustainability is not one of the five key targets of this current UK government. “The government must step in and up to the mark. We must transcend party politics”. Great message. But it is distressing to realise how little it is getting through as we approach a general election in the coming year, and time is running out.

Our deepening vulnerability

Third is the vulnerability of all we take for granted. The scale of it became vividly clear at the annual meeting of AIRMIC, the risk and insurance body in Manchester.

The mood was frank, grim and realistic. The unthinkables are all happening, warned Nick Allan, the CEO of Control Risks. “Companies are now digging in to discover the realties”. The world is “entering a new cold war in order to prevent a Third World War,” warned General Sir Richard Shirreff, who is a former deputy supreme allied commander of NATO. “Russia will be an ever present danger”.

In other words, the world of insurance, risk and resilience is being left behind by events, many of which it never envisaged. Those sitting in the audience need to wake up. Urgently.

At TTU we have warned about this time and time again for several years, and in our book in 2018. Many people wondered what we were smoking! But look where we are now, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation running stubbornly at 8 per cent in the UK and not reducing, a “mortgage bomb” hanging over 2 million borrowers whose cash flow will be devastated by high interest rates when they renegotiate in the coming year.

And so it goes on.

What happens if… ?

These are the unthinkables to most people who literally did not even consider: “what happens if?” But in reality they are the new unpalatable realities that by the day are unpicking the glue that holds together our society at every level.

Some leaders have been inspiring and exemplary. They deserve every success and accolade that has been heaped upon them. But too many are prevaricating. They must get off the fence and upskill to realise the enormity of what is happening, with more extremes threatening.